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Specialised in inflation and monetary policy themes
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Global geopolitical analysis
HEM: Fear of Fear Itself
Fear of tariffs and DOGE is depressing vibes in US surveysResilient labour markets suggest dovish fear is overblownUnderlying price and wage inflation remains too highPaused easing cycles do not resume …
US Tariffs: No Fooling!
The announcement of individual reciprocal tariff rates for US trading patterns on 2 April is rightly seen as a watershed moment for investors. Nevertheless, in a drive to re-industrialise America, …
UK: Low CPI As Seasonal Sales Extend
UK CPI inflation slowed by 15bps to 2.84%, rounding slightly under expectations. The services rate was surprisingly resilient, and January’s upside news broadly persisted.Downside news from clothing and core goods …
Reliable forecasts and indicators
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Inflation forecasts across Europe (22 countries)
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Underlying inflation measures for all countries
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