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Specialised in inflation and monetary policy themes
Forecasting the UK and Euro area economies
Global geopolitical analysis
HEM: Oct-25 Views & Challenges
Hawkish inflation and policy rate pricing shifts toward our UK/EA view did not stop US rates frontloading more cuts.We still see markets overpricing easing, with UK inflation expectations stuck above …
EA: Rounding Jobs For Migrants
A surprise rise in EA unemployment reflects rounding rather than alarming weakness, with labour supply and demand still surging. Finland’s woes are more idiosyncratic.Supply has trended much faster post-pandemic, sustaining …
UK: Government Leads Imbalances
Household saving and inflation have eroded their debt burden while corporates remain prudent. A lack of imbalances to correct starves the UK of fuel for a recession fire.Persistent fiscal and …
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Inflation forecasts across Europe (22 countries)
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