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Expert insights
Specialised in inflation and monetary policy themes
Forecasting the UK and Euro area economies
Global geopolitical analysis
PMI Shows Structural Over Cyclical Story
Flash PMIs for October extended the US outperformance to the UK and Euro area with more opposing moves and surprises. Such resilience sits uneasily with rate cuts.Modest rises in US …
UK Inflation Hits Its Bouncy Bottom
Surprisingly soft UK inflation data extended across the headline and conventional core metrics, partly because of substantial payback in airfares after August’s surge.Only a slight unwind in October and ambiguous …
UK Cycle Tightens As Policy Eases
UK unemployment dropped by another 16bps in August to 4.0%, sustaining a 0.2pp fall on last year. Short-term unemployment looks even tighter as demand trends resiliently.Resurgent employment and hours worked …
Reliable forecasts and indicators
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Inflation forecasts across Europe (22 countries)
Continual updates for data releases and news
Full detail and aggregates to aid interpretation
Forecast evolution data
Underlying inflation measures for all countries
Indicator series crucial to numerous models
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Insights on the macro themes driving financial markets
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