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Expert insights
Specialised in inflation and monetary policy themes
Forecasting the UK and Euro area economies
Global geopolitical analysis
HEM: Better Never Than Late
Companies are smoothing out volatile trade policiesActivity remains strong and labour markets are tightUnderlying price and wage inflation is still too highMarkets expect cuts to resume later, contrary to historyThe …
Underlying GDP Trends Unbroken
Imports frontloaded before tariff rises seemingly disappeared in broadly unrevised US GDP data. Underperformance is exaggerated as an unwind, or revisions, are likely in Q2.Final domestic private sales maintained their …
PMI Goods Vibes
Broad improvements in the flash manufacturing PMIs demonstrate ongoing resilience relative to consumers’ bad vibes. Goods trade seemingly shrugged off the tariff shock.The UK was alone in weakening, but it …
Reliable forecasts and indicators
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Inflation forecasts across Europe (22 countries)
Continual updates for data releases and news
Full detail and aggregates to aid interpretation
Forecast evolution data
Underlying inflation measures for all countries
Indicator series crucial to numerous models
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