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Specialised in inflation and monetary policy themes
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Global geopolitical analysis

UK CPI Trend Extends Excess In July
Another upside surprise in UK CPI inflation extended the accumulated drift to 1.3pp over the past year, yet was only 0.2pp above our old call.This outcome matched the BoE’s latest …

UK Excess Inflation Expectations
The upwards trend in consensus inflation forecasts reflects persistent excess effective expectations supporting wages amid policymakers’ failure to re-anchor at the target.Easing on the assumption of success predictably negated the …

UK: Slowdown Softened In Q2
June’s remarkable rebound compounded the resilience revealed by April’s upwards revision, which also broke flimsy fundamental stories blaming tariffs for a slowdown.IP no longer declined in April, but the broader …
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