March 10, 2021
- CPI inflation rose by 3.3% y-o-y in Feb-21, above the final consensus forecast of 3%, but very close to our forecast. Basket re-weighting to reflect pandemic consumption patterns continues to impact the data.
- The Norges Bank is likely to show some flexibility in its response to these numbers, and it will update the market with its Monetary Policy Report on Thursday 18 March.
October 28, 2020
- Norway and Sweden pursued different policy paths in the first Covid wave, providing an informative case study. Restrictive policy measures appear to drive the economically destructive behavioural changes, especially when they apply persistently.
- Both countries remain sensitive to global depression but should suffer from a less broken supply chain in the second wave. With neither country yet tightening restrictions, both should outperform in Europe, including in the medium-term level.