Archive

Oil: When The Facts Change…

• Changing ‘facts’ in the Middle East and more widely are making prospects for the price of oil even more murky, as is underlined by the wide range of forecasts among market analysts. What is clear, however, is that the escalation in Iran/Israel tensions has skewed risks firmly to the upside.

By Alastair Newton

Indonesia Policy Rate 6.25% (consensus 6.0%) in Apr-24

• Bank Indonesia unexpectedly raised the BI-Rate by 25bps to 6.25%, defying the consensus forecast as it aims to stabilize the Rupiah and curb inflation amid global financial uncertainties.
• The rate hike is a strategic response to external pressures and inflation risks, ensuring that inflation remains within the 2.5 ± 1% target range through preemptive monetary tightening.
• Despite the rate increase, Bank Indonesia maintains a pro-growth approach through supportive macroprudential policies and enhancements to the payment system, promoting economic expansion and financial system stability.

Cipollone - Innovation, integration and independence

Speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB conference on “An innovative and integrated European retail payments market”

In his speech, Piero Cipollone highlights the progress made in the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA) in addressing the fragmentation in non-cash payments. However, he points out that SEPA has fallen short in digital payments, particularly at the point of interaction, such as in-store, mobile, and e-commerce payments. This fragmentation hampers competition, innovation, and resilience in the European payments market. Cipollone emphasizes the need for a comprehensive vision that encompasses both public and private solutions to further integrate European payments and reduce dependencies on non-European players. He discusses the importance of the digital euro project, which aims to provide a digital form of cash with pan-European reach and comprehensive payment solutions. Additionally, he emphasizes the need to strengthen the "classic SEPA" framework and the deployment of instant payments. Cipollone concludes that addressing the challenges in the retail payments sector requires industry readiness and cooperation between public and private sectors.


Positivity: 85
Uncertainty: 70

Sweden Unemployment Rate 9.2% (consensus 8.2%) in Mar-24

- Sweden's unemployment rate surged to 9.2% in Mar-24, surpassing the consensus estimate of 8.2%, marking the highest level since Jun-23.
- The current unemployment rate is 1.31 percentage points above the one-year average, signifying a significant deviation amid a worrying deterioration in the labour market.