Archive

HEM: Fear of Fear Itself

• Fear of tariffs and DOGE is depressing vibes in US surveys
• Resilient labour markets suggest dovish fear is overblown
• Underlying price and wage inflation remains too high
• Paused easing cycles do not resume without recessions
• Reversing unnecessary easing remains more likely in 2026

HEW: Braced For Reciprocal Tariffs

• Strong US and UK PMIs bolstered the former, but the low CPI damped the hawkish effect on the BoE, despite slightly extended seasonal sales being temporarily to blame. The government fudged its Spring Statement to fit its rules, with slippage feeding issuance.
• Next week’s flash EA inflation may also be low. Impending US tariff announcements are more worrisome. The RBA delivers the most prominent monetary policy announcement, although there are plenty of other speeches and US payrolls data to shift expectations.

By Philip Rush

US Tariffs: No Fooling!

• The announcement of individual reciprocal tariff rates for US trading patterns on 2 April is rightly seen as a watershed moment for investors. Nevertheless, in a drive to re-industrialise America, it may well prove to be no more than the end of the beginning in a protracted trade war.

By Alastair Newton

Norway: Rates Held At 4.5% (Consensus 4.5%) in Mar-25

• The Norges Bank held the policy rate at 4.5%, consistent with expectations, as inflation accelerated to 3.6% in February, well above prior forecasts, prompting delays in the signalled rate cuts.
• Strong wage growth, broad-based price pressures, and resilient domestic activity led the Committee to judge that a restrictive policy stance remains warranted for longer.
• The policy rate is now projected to fall to 4.0% by year-end, but heightened uncertainty around inflation and global trade developments will shape the timing and extent of future easing.