Archive

HEW: Braced For Reciprocal Tariffs

• Strong US and UK PMIs bolstered the former, but the low CPI damped the hawkish effect on the BoE, despite slightly extended seasonal sales being temporarily to blame. The government fudged its Spring Statement to fit its rules, with slippage feeding issuance.
• Next week’s flash EA inflation may also be low. Impending US tariff announcements are more worrisome. The RBA delivers the most prominent monetary policy announcement, although there are plenty of other speeches and US payrolls data to shift expectations.

By Philip Rush

US Tariffs: No Fooling!

• The announcement of individual reciprocal tariff rates for US trading patterns on 2 April is rightly seen as a watershed moment for investors. Nevertheless, in a drive to re-industrialise America, it may well prove to be no more than the end of the beginning in a protracted trade war.

By Alastair Newton

Norway: Rates Held At 4.5% (Consensus 4.5%) in Mar-25

• The Norges Bank held the policy rate at 4.5%, consistent with expectations, as inflation accelerated to 3.6% in February, well above prior forecasts, prompting delays in the signalled rate cuts.
• Strong wage growth, broad-based price pressures, and resilient domestic activity led the Committee to judge that a restrictive policy stance remains warranted for longer.
• The policy rate is now projected to fall to 4.0% by year-end, but heightened uncertainty around inflation and global trade developments will shape the timing and extent of future easing.

Mexico: 50bp Rate Cut To 9% (Consensus 9%) in Mar-25

• Banco de México cut the overnight interbank rate by 50 basis points to 9.00%, in line with expectations, citing sustained disinflation and inflation levels consistent with pre-pandemic norms.
• Inflation is forecast to reach the 3% target by Q3 2026, with risks still skewed to the upside due to global trade tensions, geopolitical instability, and persistent core inflation.
• The central bank indicated further 50bp cuts remain plausible, but policy will remain restrictive and data-dependent to ensure inflation converges to the target sustainably and orderly.