July 15, 2021
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UK: jobs and UR distortions unwinding

  • Unemployment disappointed consensus expectations but matched our forecast of 4.8% in May-21. Bullish biases from lockdown surveys and support schemes are unwinding. We still expect the former to drive a slight rise to 4.9% in June.
  • About 10% of employees either remain out of work or on furlough, with ~3pp of those on part-time furlough where usage has been sticky and clogging up clearing in the labour market. Rapid headline wage growth is mostly about base and mix effects, though.
  • Residual restrictions are reinforcing behavioural changes that spread activity differently to pre-covid and the reallocation of resources between sectors, companies and areas should cause frictional weakness. We still forecast a UR peak of 6% in Q4.

July 15, 2021

Saunders - The inflation outlook

Michael Saunders talks about the outlook for the UK economy and what he thinks it means for prices. He then sets out some thoughts on the appropriate monetary policy stance.

July 14, 2021
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FLASH: Sweden inflation in June-21

SE CPI 1.33 % (vs 1.32 %)

SE CPIF 1.58 % (vs 1.54 %)