April 09, 2021
- Inflation surprised on the downside this month, mostly due to household energy bills, but with clothing and airfares also disappointing.
- The recent shift in Norges Bank signalling towards a potential tightening in 2021 looks exposed to us, as we are more cautious on the pace of exit from pandemic restrictions.
April 09, 2021
- There has been a lull in the release calendar over the past week, conveniently timed for Easter. The return to the City and many schools on Monday will be joined by the next stage of lockdown easing in the UK. The data holding attention are mostly from the inflation side, with final releases across the euro area and Sweden, following Norway’s low outcome on 9 April. UK GDP data for Feb-21 are also scheduled for release on Tuesday, where the accompanying trade data are likely to attract greater than normal attention after all the disruption in January.
- In Heteronomics news, we have been pleased to welcome Anna Raman to our development team this week. Her focus is on the front-end systems that clients will be increasingly able to interact with on the website. And with our designers having completed the new dynamic pages for thematic and country content, plus the model simulation interfaces, there won’t be long to wait until you can enjoy additional access.
March 31, 2021
- Flash HICP inflation rebounded by 40bps to 1.3% in Mar-21. That outcome was 14bps less than we expected, mostly caused by Italy and France to a lesser extent, while Spain provided a partial positive offset. Our forecast is now 0.1pp lower for the year ahead.