Archive

HEW: Kicked Can Lands Steady

• Trump kicked the tariff can a few weeks to 1 August, leaving other policymakers and markets in a wait-and-see mode. Pricing was little changed amid little news elsewhere.
• We thematically explored the market implications of resilience rolling cuts later, how healthy the US labour market data is, and dug into the UK’s political problems.
• Next week’s UK labour market and inflation data are critical ahead of an August BoE decision we believe remains finely balanced. US and EA inflation are other highlights.

By Philip Rush

Korea: Policy Rate Held At 2.5% (Consensus 2.5%) in Jul-25

• The Bank of Korea held its base rate at 2.50% as expected, pausing its easing cycle after household loans surged 6.5 trillion won in June and housing prices accelerated in Seoul, demonstrating that financial stability concerns now outweigh immediate growth support needs.
• While economic growth remains subdued with a revised 0.8% forecast for 2025 and trade uncertainty persists, the Committee prioritised evaluating recently strengthened household debt management measures over additional monetary stimulus, signalling a defensive policy stance.
• Future rate cuts remain contingent on financial stability developments and external conditions, with September presenting the next likely opportunity for easing if household debt growth moderates and US-Korea trade relations stabilise.

US Claims Continue To Cruise Calmly

• Rising continuing claims in recent months have been heralded as a canary warning of belated suffering in the labour market. But the problem is ending before it ever began.
• US employment growth is still aligned with its long-run average, and the unemployment rate is unchanged on the year. Openings and quits are also steady with averages.
• The Fed needs excess disinflation to cut, and we believe this won’t materialise. That also avoids demand and policy pressure on the BoE and ECB, helping them hold rates.

By Philip Rush

RBNZ: Policy Rate Held At 3.25% (Consensus 3.25%) in Jul-25

• The RBNZ unanimously held the OCR at 3.25% after six consecutive cuts, marking the first pause in its easing cycle as inflation edges towards the top of the 1-3% target band.
• The Committee maintains an explicit easing bias, signalling that further rate cuts are expected if medium-term inflation pressures continue to ease as projected.
• Future monetary policy decisions will be heavily influenced by global trade tensions, domestic economic recovery momentum, and inflation expectations amid an explicitly uncertain outlook.