April 26, 2021
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UK: election raising indyref2 risk

  • The SNP has used Brexit as a pretext for a second independence referendum request, but the new realities of UK-EU relations fundamentally change the debate.
  • If a clear majority of MSPs elected to the new Scottish Parliament on 6 May favour independence, the perceived risk premium around indyref2 is likely to rise.

April 14, 2021
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EU: Waiting in the wings for Hamilton

  • The current Covid19 crisis is an opportunity for the EU to force the door open a little further towards sharing debt - the Hamiltonian moment.
  • However, the attitude of any new German administration to further fiscal entanglement with southern Europe is unclear. We believe the doom loop has yet to be extinguished.

March 25, 2021
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Covid-consensus is over-optimistic

  • Enthused by vaccine success in some countries, the consensus appears to be centred on a modal "return to normal" outcome in H2.
  • We see a higher probability of a more restrictive outcome, with downside risks to a more cautious mode.
  • Continued curbs on international travel create a fractured global economy, while local flare-ups will lead to periodic domestic restrictions.