April 16, 2021

HEW: ECB and the RPI preview

  • Inflation data have dominated the release calendar over the past week, although Sweden and the final Euro area prints were in line with expectations. It’s the UK’s turn next week, where we expect mixed surprises, as explained in one of the previews below. We preview the ECB’s policy announcement on Thursday below too.
  • The UK schedule also contains the flurry of other monthly releases. We are a tenth above the consensus on wages, owing to the surge shown on payroll returns, and will be watching the March retail sales data as one of the first official releases covering the UK’s gradual re-opening. February GDP data on 13 April showed a pathetically flat performance, albeit with accompanying trade data rebounding from January disruption (see UK: trade rebounds better than GDP).
  • We also dug into the NextGenerationEU package, which attracted more attention this week when additional funding details were announced. Aspects of this could become more significant in the weeks and months ahead. We also remain sceptical about its ability to fix the fundamental flaws in the European project, which could be exposed by a less amenable German Chancellor (EU: Waiting in the wings for Hamilton).

April 09, 2021

HEW: re-opening for final inflation

  • There has been a lull in the release calendar over the past week, conveniently timed for Easter. The return to the City and many schools on Monday will be joined by the next stage of lockdown easing in the UK. The data holding attention are mostly from the inflation side, with final releases across the euro area and Sweden, following Norway’s low outcome on 9 April. UK GDP data for Feb-21 are also scheduled for release on Tuesday, where the accompanying trade data are likely to attract greater than normal attention after all the disruption in January.
  • In Heteronomics news, we have been pleased to welcome Anna Raman to our development team this week. Her focus is on the front-end systems that clients will be increasingly able to interact with on the website. And with our designers having completed the new dynamic pages for thematic and country content, plus the model simulation interfaces, there won’t be long to wait until you can enjoy additional access.

March 26, 2021

HEW: Easter edition

  • The deluge of data out of the UK over the past week contained some substantial surprises as CPI inflation crashed and the unemployment rate dipped to 5%, where the latter is likely to be more relevant for the BoE (UK: labour market locked down tight). Although retail sales didn’t surprise us, we were interested to see signs of separate and underappreciated weakness in Mar-21 signals (UK: consumers stop feeling special). And taking the longer view, we explained why we still see Covid contributing to a disappointing GDP outlook for H2 and beyond (Covid-consensus is over-optimistic).
  • Next week brings a return of focus to the euro area and its flash inflation releases. Quarterly national accounts data for the UK could reveal some interesting details around the balance sheet damage from lockdowns but tend not to attract much market attention on the day.
  • In Heteronomics news, our website’s paywall will activate next week. So, if you haven’t already, please set your password using the link sent from on Monday, request a reset through the login form, or reach out to us for assistance.