April 16, 2021
- EA HICP inflation for Mar-21 was confirmed at 1.3% y-o-y while the ex-tobacco index was marginally weaker than expected at 106.09 (Heteronomics: 106.12) for 1.26% y-o-y. Clothing was softer with transport and housing offsetting, mostly owing to Italy changes.
- The headline rate is set to rise further from base effects over the next two months before slumping in July. A likely rise above target in the Autumn should be fleeting as underlying inflation provides a soggy bottom rather than a firm foundation.
April 14, 2021
- CPIF inflation rose to 1.9% in March, very close to the RB’s target, while the CPI rate was bang in line with the consensus and ourselves, at 1.7%.
- We still expect inflation to accelerate to the peak in April before driving back to a near-1% trough in July. Our 2021 call is broadly a consensus one but is above the local view.
April 09, 2021
- Inflation surprised on the downside this month, mostly due to household energy bills, but with clothing and airfares also disappointing.
- The recent shift in Norges Bank signalling towards a potential tightening in 2021 looks exposed to us, as we are more cautious on the pace of exit from pandemic restrictions.