Archive

April 26, 2021
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UK: election raising indyref2 risk

  • The SNP has used Brexit as a pretext for a second independence referendum request, but the new realities of UK-EU relations fundamentally change the debate.
  • If a clear majority of MSPs elected to the new Scottish Parliament on 6 May favour independence, the perceived risk premium around indyref2 is likely to rise.

April 23, 2021
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UK: retail keeps volatility for recovery

  • UK retail sales rebounded by 5% m-o-m in Mar-21, recovering half of its decline since Oct-20 and beating consensus expectations. GDP has been less sensitive to lockdown on the downside so is set to rebound less in the recovery.
  • Businesses have been slow to re-open with only 1.6% resuming trade in the month to 18 April and a third of the accommodation and food sector still closed. Hopes are high for the next fortnight. Rejoice - UK mobility is above the most depressed half of the world.

April 22, 2021
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ECB: middle ground behind the world

  • The ECB announced no policy changes again at its April meeting, with purchases continuing at their faster pace. There doesn’t seem to have been much economic pressure on its February forecasts so far and financial conditions have behaved.
  • PEPP purchases are occurring at the middle-ground pace between their initial surge and recent lull. This pace could slow as soon as June but a more likely continuation to September still wouldn’t threaten the parameters for the program’s current envelope.