Archive

February 17, 2026
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UK: A Lame Horse Year?

  • The UK labour market ended 2025 on a disappointingly feeble note, with unemployment rising to 5.2%. Methodology and tax contributed, so the cyclical change isn’t so bad.
  • Wage growth also slowed in 2025, with disagreement about the extent. Most measures remain above 4%, although the distorted public vs private split depressed the latter.
  • Dovish BoE assumptions can lean on labour market weakness to cut again soon. We still lean towards the 30 April MPR, but soft CPI inflation could push Bailey to 19 March.

By Philip Rush

February 16, 2026
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BoE Failure is Institutionally Ignored

  • Bank staff ignored the possibility of excess inflation expectations when finding no structural change in an irrelevant construct that persuaded dovish dissents in February.
  • Staff can’t be expected to tell their leaders of their policy failure. Firms and households expect further excesses in price and wage inflation, but the MPC is not listening.
  • The 2% target has become a floor only broken by substantial temporary shocks. Loose fiscal policy enjoys this excessive accommodation, and both biases will likely persist.

By Philip Rush

February 13, 2026
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HEW: Assuming Success

  • Assumptions consistent with our hopes are alluring, but not always realistic. They can lead policymakers to learn the wrong lessons for politics and monetary conditions.
  • Recent election victories don’t mean a new soft-left UK leader will achieve the same. Current resilience need not break to target-consistent levels, nor create room for cuts.
  • Next week is packed with some of the most important UK releases coming before the BoE’s March decision, including unemployment and inflation’s likely January drop to 3%.

By Philip Rush

February 12, 2026
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UK GDP Softly Turns In Q4

  • Half of last month’s upside GDP growth surprise was revised away with the December data, tempering Q4 growth back to our 0.1% q-o-q forecast while disappointing others.
  • An encouraging mix skewed to services output meant the underlying performance still trended up during Q4. We now track 0.4% for Q1, aided by residual seasonality.
  • Revisions to December, or a belated catch-up to trend, could make this even stronger. It is the flip side of soft H2 performances, and the dovish BoE is focused on other things.

By Philip Rush

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