March 25, 2021
- Enthused by vaccine success in some countries, the consensus appears to be centred on a modal "return to normal" outcome in H2.
- We see a higher probability of a more restrictive outcome, with downside risks to a more cautious mode.
- Continued curbs on international travel create a fractured global economy, while local flare-ups will lead to periodic domestic restrictions.
March 17, 2021
- EA HICP inflation for Feb-21 was confirmed at 0.9% y-o-y with the ex-tobacco index precisely in line with our forecast of 105.10 (0.8% y-o-y). The outlook is broadly unchanged, with a jump to 1.5% in Mar-21 still likely, in our view.
March 11, 2021
- The ECB announced no policy changes while indicating purchases at a “significantly higher pace than during the first months of this year”. A low pace in January and excess within the existing envelope means the difference may not impact markets.
- Rather than attempt to reverse recent moves, we see the ECB trying to discourage an extension, thereby preventing a tightening inconsistent with the outlook. It is such a weak form of guidance, though, markets may test its limits if the US move extends.