Archive

January 13, 2026
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US Inflation Resumes Without Payback

  • US inflation resumed its monthly trend in headline, core, and underlying services after nonsensical methodological noise around the shutdown, including non-collection itself.
  • Payback from late sampling in November didn’t have an apparent inflationary effect, perhaps because the gap between collections didn’t leave long for other prices to rise.
  • Surprises are skewing lower, but inflation is stuck above the target, so there isn’t a compelling case to cut again. We still expect the Fed to hold rates in January.

By Philip Rush

January 09, 2026
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HEW: Turning 2026 Resiliently

  • A festive feast in resilient GDP data has extended into tracking estimates for Q4 in the US and UK, while the US unemployment rate has fallen from revision-tempered highs.
  • Falling PMIs were less encouraging, but don’t break resilient signals nor persistently excessive inflation signals. Plans to recover profit margins add to the BoE’s challenge.
  • Next week’s US inflation data provides the first clean monthly rate after November’s nonsensical gap-filling. UK GDP data for November is the other highlight for us.

By Philip Rush

January 08, 2026
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BoE Faces Renewed Margin Pressure

  • CFOs suffered squeezed margins in 2025 that they intend to partly recover in 2026, reversing a source of disinflation into another reason for hawkish concern.
  • Price and wage inflation expectations remain excessive while the November crash in employment sentiment reversed, dampening the dovish ammunition.
  • The MPC’s three pivotal members need dovish news to bring forward another cut not implied until at least April. This outcome merely encourages the inactive course.

By Philip Rush

January 07, 2026
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EA: De-energised Back To Target

  • EA inflation slowed back to target at the end of 2025, reversing November’s upside news to strengthen the ECB’s “good place” caricature.
  • Falling energy prices are driving an unsustainable disinflation, while service price inflation is stuck above 3%. Small and balanced EA surprises skew lower in big states.
  • Base effects remain set to drive a drop below the target and reversal by May. A slightly below target 2026 is not dovish when underlying pressures are stronger.

By Philip Rush

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