Archive

Hawkish BOJ Outlook Signals Rate Hikes

• BOJ held rates at 0.75% as expected, but a hawkish outlook and upgraded core inflation reinforce expectations of further hikes in 2026.
• An 8–1 vote, with one member preferring a hike to 1%, and persistent wage-driven inflation, suggests structural pressures that argue for a higher terminal rate.
• With labour tightness and rising inflation expectations, markets now price additional hikes, making the timing and pace of BOJ normalisation the key policy focus.

HEW: Recovering UK Data

• UK macro data filled a release calendar with positive news on activity from retail sales, the PMIs, public finances, and even unemployment through its first stability since July.
• Inflation data didn’t offset this hawkish pressure. It increased despite the early sample and the EA rate getting revised even softer. Greenland’s travails distracted markets.
• Next week’s calendar is dominated by the Fed’s guidance around its likely unchanged policy decision. We don’t see the Fed in any rush to cut again, nor the BoE or ECB.

By Philip Rush

UK: Only A Little Less Fiscally Bleak

• The UK public finances ended 2025 bullishly with cash receipts jumping ahead of forecasts, sending an encouraging signal ahead of January’s critical tax deadline.
• Tracking a slightly better performance in 2025-26 is unlikely to create a post-pandemic low in borrowing after years of imprudence that relied on restraint rolling ever later.
• Borrowing should be £30-40bn above the initial forecast for this year, made during the depths of covid doom. Fiscal slippage remains the real rule investors should remember.

By Philip Rush

Norway's Restrictive Pause Amid Inflation Dilemma

• Norges Bank held the policy rate at 4% as expected, reiterating that cuts are likely later in 2026 but only if disinflation progresses as projected.
• Guidance points to one or two cuts this year, but policymakers stress a restrictive stance until underlying inflation, stuck near 3%, moves closer to the 2% target.
• A March cut looks unlikely; the path and timing of easing hinge on labour market softening, cost pressures, and krone moves ahead of new forecasts in March.