March 17, 2021
- EA HICP inflation for Feb-21 was confirmed at 0.9% y-o-y with the ex-tobacco index precisely in line with our forecast of 105.10 (0.8% y-o-y). The outlook is broadly unchanged, with a jump to 1.5% in Mar-21 still likely, in our view.
March 15, 2021
- The inflation rate according to the CPIF (CPI with fixed interest rate) was 1.5% y-o-y in February 2021, down from 1.7% in January. CPI inflation was 1.4%, some way below the consensus of 1.6%, although the outcome was only 0.1pps shy of our forecast.
- The Riksbank expects that it will be 2023 before CPIF inflation returns to the 2 per cent target on a more sustainable basis. We also see an imminent rise above 2% as fleeting.
March 10, 2021
- CPI inflation rose by 3.3% y-o-y in Feb-21, above the final consensus forecast of 3%, but very close to our forecast. Basket re-weighting to reflect pandemic consumption patterns continues to impact the data.
- The Norges Bank is likely to show some flexibility in its response to these numbers, and it will update the market with its Monetary Policy Report on Thursday 18 March.