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December 16, 2025
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UK: LFS Strengthens Policy Division

  • Doves and hawks on the MPC will find support for their views in the UK labour market data. It should strengthen divergent views in December, not resolve disagreement.
  • Another rise in the unemployment rate and a shocking spike in redundancies can feed dovish fears that activity in the labour market is breaking into disinflationary weakness.
  • Hawks can see another round of upwards revisions to wages, driving surprise persistence again. Total pay’s trend is stable in recent years, and regular pay is sticking too high.

By Philip Rush

December 16, 2025
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US: Noisy November After Reopening

  • US private payroll growth stayed steady through the government shutdown. Statisticians failed to collect much data for November, yielding a noisy surge in unemployment.
  • The employment-to-population ratio is steady, as are job openings and layoffs. Churn is still low, with few quits or hires, but broad resilience appears to remain unbroken.
  • Jobless claims are also stable into December, when headline data should improve. The Fed pre-empted bad news with past cuts and is unlikely to keep going in January.

By Philip Rush

December 12, 2025
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HEW: Packing Festive Presents

  • Another hawkish repricing occurred, despite little support from the Fed, although the six members favouring higher rates reveal hawkish discomfort beyond current voters.
  • Trade with China is still avoiding the trade war well enough to prevent a massive shock, and UK GDP data kept following its residual seasonality rather than fundamental stories.
  • It’s all happening next week as central banks and statistical authorities ram releases in before Christmas. Bailey’s bias to pivot should deliver a BoE cut while the ECB holds.

By Philip Rush

December 11, 2025
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Monetary Policy Tide Is Turning Up

  • Markets are already pricing the return of rate hikes in 2026 for Canada, Australia and New Zealand, while policymakers elsewhere are starting to warn of the possibility.
  • Transitional support to structural adjustments needs unwinding, as Canada signals most prominently. Broader activity resilience and inflation reveal the risk of overstimulation.
  • The BoE already committed a policy mistake by easing too early, and is split by those recognising the persistent danger. Market pricing remains too dovish for 2026.

By Philip Rush

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