April 14, 2021
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EU: Waiting in the wings for Hamilton

  • The current Covid19 crisis is an opportunity for the EU to force the door open a little further towards sharing debt - the Hamiltonian moment.
  • However, the attitude of any new German administration to further fiscal entanglement with southern Europe is unclear. We believe the doom loop has yet to be extinguished.

April 14, 2021
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Sweden: careering around the target

  • CPIF inflation rose to 1.9% in March, very close to the RB’s target, while the CPI rate was bang in line with the consensus and ourselves, at 1.7%.
  • We still expect inflation to accelerate to the peak in April before driving back to a near-1% trough in July. Our 2021 call is broadly a consensus one but is above the local view.

April 13, 2021
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UK: trade rebounds better than GDP

  • UK GDP limped up by 0.4% m-o-m in Feb-21, with services growing at half that rate in the ongoing lockdown. Few businesses have reopened even by 4 April, so March is also likely to remain fairly flat. January’s smaller fall slightly shrinks our Q1 dip call to 1.9%.
  • External trade data were more depressed in January and have recovered more swiftly, especially in exports to the EU. The underlying deficit still deteriorated on non-EU weakness, although these data may remain distorted by post-Brexit reporting changes.