April 14, 2021
- CPIF inflation rose to 1.9% in March, very close to the RB’s target, while the CPI rate was bang in line with the consensus and ourselves, at 1.7%.
- We still expect inflation to accelerate to the peak in April before driving back to a near-1% trough in July. Our 2021 call is broadly a consensus one but is above the local view.
April 13, 2021
- UK GDP limped up by 0.4% m-o-m in Feb-21, with services growing at half that rate in the ongoing lockdown. Few businesses have reopened even by 4 April, so March is also likely to remain fairly flat. January’s smaller fall slightly shrinks our Q1 dip call to 1.9%.
- External trade data were more depressed in January and have recovered more swiftly, especially in exports to the EU. The underlying deficit still deteriorated on non-EU weakness, although these data may remain distorted by post-Brexit reporting changes.
April 09, 2021
- Inflation surprised on the downside this month, mostly due to household energy bills, but with clothing and airfares also disappointing.
- The recent shift in Norges Bank signalling towards a potential tightening in 2021 looks exposed to us, as we are more cautious on the pace of exit from pandemic restrictions.