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Canada CPI Inflation 2.9% y-o-y (consensus 2.9%) in Mar-24

- Canada's annual CPI inflation rate in March 2024 crept up to 2.9%, in line with market expectations, returning to the highest growth since December 2023.
- However, disinflation has left the current rate 0.42 percentage points below the one-year average while core measures kept slowing and to a surprising extent.

Jefferson - Economic Uncertainty and the Evolution of Monetary Policymaking

In this speech, Philip Jefferson discusses the importance of understanding uncertainty in monetary policy decision-making. He presents historical examples of how economic thinking on monetary policymaking in the presence of uncertainty has evolved. Jefferson highlights the views of Milton Friedman, who emphasized the limited knowledge of policymakers and advocated for simple rules in monetary policy. He also discusses the Bayesian approach to uncertainty and the implications of ambiguity aversion. Jefferson emphasizes that the appropriate response to uncertainty depends on the specific circumstances. He discusses the lessons learned from the past, including the need for policymakers to act quickly or cautiously depending on the level of uncertainty, the limitations of rigid adherence to simple monetary policy rules, and the importance of humility in policymaking. He concludes by discussing the current economic situation, with a focus on inflation and economic growth.


Positivity Score: 75
Uncertainty Score: 80

UK Paying More for Fewer Workers

• UK unemployment jumped surprisingly far in February 2024 to hit 4.2% as employment fell. More long-term jobless suggests this is neither a new shock nor too disinflationary.
• Average earnings growth surged by 0.7% m-o-m, meaning the wage bill still rose despite fewer jobs. Regular pay growth is in rude health at 6% y-o-y or 2.1% in real terms.
• Wage settlements are stuck at 5%, with a skew higher into April. Embedded inflation expectations are too high and demand tight policy despite some cyclical softening.

By Philip Rush

Breeden - Modernising the trains and rails of UK payments

Amidst the prospect of significant technological change in payments, Sarah sets out how the Bank of England seeks to deliver trust and support innovation, both as a provider and as a regulator of retail and wholesale money. She discusses the first-order threats and opportunities facing central banks and the private sector.

In this speech, Sarah Breeden discusses the technological advancements in money and payment systems and how the Bank of England is looking to capture the benefits of these advances while ensuring safety. She highlights the potential of tokenization and distributed ledger technology in improving retail and wholesale payments, mentioning examples like Libra's proposal for cross-border payments and the potential for lower-cost micropayments. Breeden also emphasizes the importance of enhancing wholesale payments and settlement, particularly through innovative central bank infrastructure. Additionally, she discusses the exploration of retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) and encourages banks to take action in payments innovation.


Positivity: 85
Uncertainty: 70