October 27, 2024
US Election: If Donald Trump Loses…
- In this toss-up presidential election, investors should be mindful of the path by which Donald Trump would contest a Harris victory and how he might, this time, ultimately succeed in overturning the outcome at the end of a protracted period of market-unsettling uncertainty.
By Alastair Newton
October 26, 2024
Bailey - The future of money and payments
In this speech, Andrew Bailey emphasises the need to modernise payment systems, particularly cross-border and wholesale payments, by harnessing digital technology. He discusses the roles of central bank and commercial bank money, the importance of innovation, and the potential for a retail Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) if innovation in commercial banks does not happen.In his speech, Andrew Bailey discusses the need to modernize payment systems to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, particularly highlighting the slow progress in cross-border payment modernization. He underscores the potential benefits of digital technology in modernizing payment practices and asserts the importance of retaining traditional features such as cash for as long as there is public demand. Bailey makes a distinction between retail and wholesale payments, suggesting that while retail payments can use either central or commercial bank money, central bank money plays a critical role in wholesale transactions, serving as the system anchor. He emphasizes the necessity for central banks to encourage and potentially provide innovation in digital payments, although he prefers such developments to occur within commercial banks. He stresses that if commercial bank innovation lags, central banks may need to lead in retail payments innovation, further noting the structural barriers inhibiting technology and infrastructure developments that could prevent such innovations.
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- Positivity: 70
- Uncertainty: 60
October 25, 2024
HEW: Shades of Fiscal Pressures
- Resilient US PMIs and rising odds of a Trump victory have kept lifting rates. However, the Bank of Canada matched dovish expectations with a 50bp cut, and European PMIs disappointed again. We believe Europe’s labour market resilience is underappreciated.
- Next week’s calendar is packed. The UK’s long-awaited Budget will clarify what trial balloons will fly and how much more it will tax, spend, borrow and hope. Distorted US payrolls are the lead data release, although we expect a lesser EA inflation rebound.
By Philip Rush
October 24, 2024
Bailey - Michael D. Gill Memorial Society Lecture
In this lecture, Andrew Bailey reflects on the life and contributions of Mike Gill, including the role Mike played as a moderniser and internationalist at the CFTC. Andrew also reflects on the importance of central clearing in ensuring the safe operation of the global financial system, supported by regulatory and supervisory cooperation.The speech by Andrew Bailey centers on the critical importance of international cooperation and proper management in financial clearing systems. It underscores the lessons learned from the Global Financial Crisis, highlighting the potential risks associated with central counterparty clearing if not handled diligently. Bailey emphasizes the significance of maintaining robust standards for CCPs to mitigate systemic risks and ensure financial stability globally. The speech also elaborates on the evolving role of non-bank financial intermediaries in derivatives markets and the necessity for innovative risk management approaches. It ends with a commitment to ongoing international cooperation to sustain the safety and efficacy of global financial markets, reflecting the values of the late Mike Gill, who was hailed as a pivotal figure in fostering these principles.
- Positivity: 70
- Uncertainty: 60
By type
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Inflation
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Politics
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Monetary Policy
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Activity