April 29, 2021
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Reflationary decoupling

  • Surging US inflation arguably risks spilling over to Europe amid a high degree of co-movement between them, but the relationship can break up like it did in 2005-06.
  • The spillover of US reflation is likely to be incomplete, especially to the euro area, so relative price level hikes can be sustained for inflation-linked instruments, in our view.

April 27, 2021
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Sweden: Riksbank cautiously optimistic

  • The economy is recovering faster than assumed in February, but the Riksbank deems the risks from tightening policy too soon as greater than keeping them looser for longer.
  • The key risks to their base case relate to how the pandemic plays out from here, and any further rise in global bond yields.

April 14, 2021
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Sweden: careering around the target

  • CPIF inflation rose to 1.9% in March, very close to the RB’s target, while the CPI rate was bang in line with the consensus and ourselves, at 1.7%.
  • We still expect inflation to accelerate to the peak in April before driving back to a near-1% trough in July. Our 2021 call is broadly a consensus one but is above the local view.